Lies, Damn lies and Statistics


Almost every day now we see news articles calling the peak of the Sydney market. They’ve been doing this for nearly 18 months now, since last Q 2015. One just recently called “top” because in the Sydney market in April 2017 prices “fell” by, wait for it, 0.1% and auction clearance rates “fell” to just over 70% !

Did anybody think to tell these people that in the month of April we had:

  • 4 day Easter break
  • An Anzac Day long weekend
  • 2 weeks of NSW school holidays
  • Selling agents who ‘pocket’ listings until May when normality returns

Now that we are into May, we are seeing prices continue to rise and auction clearance rates are back over 80%…… much for these geniuses calling the “top”.

It might make good headlines but it is holding out false hope to people holding off buying until a market crash occurs.

What’s going to cause a market crash anyway? Probably only 3 possible things:

  1. Rising interest rates of 1% or more (bear in mind the long term trend for housing loan interest rates is 7% and we are a long way from that – years away I suspect).
  2. Rising unemployment (latest figures and projections show falling interest rates).
  3. Global unrest – the only real possibility

Look, booms don’t last forever, and we acknowledge that, but if you are out on the sidelines wand wanting to get into the market, my advice is to get in now. The longer you wait, the more I think you’ll have to pay.

1 Comment

  1. Andrew Ross May 12, 2017 at 8:16 pm #

    Sound advice as always Alan!


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